The University of Washington published a paper in Demographic Research after conducting a study which concluded that people in the 21st Century might live up to 130 years.
Many scientists who disagree with the results of the study state that there is a fixed limit to the human lifespan because cells deteriorate as we age. However, others have pointed out that all age caps proposed by scientists have been surpassed about five years after the scientists first suggested them.
How the researchers conducted the study
Researchers from The University of Washington used statistical modelling to come up with their findings. One problem they encountered with their research was that there was insufficient data to show the number of people who had lived to 110 years and beyond.
Using Bayesian statistics, the team of researchers predicted the maximum lifespan that will be recorded by the end of the year 2100.
The researchers used the International Database on Longevity made by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research to collect data for the study. It supplied information about supercentenarians from counties in Asia, North America and Europe. They combined the maximum age of death recorded from 13 countries from these continents using the Bayesian method.
Findings on the research
The researchers from the University of Washington were able to make a few conclusions. One conclusion was that Jeanne Calment’s record of 122 years and 164 days has a 100% probability of being surpassed. Jeanne Calment, a woman from France who died on August 4, 1997, currently hold the record for the oldest living person.
The researchers also concluded that someone would reach an age between 124 with a probability of 99% and 127 with 68%. Another finding is that a life span of 130 years has a 13% probability of being reached. However, there are meagre chances that anyone will live more than 135 years.
In the last decades, there have been 500,000 more people who have lived over 100 years. However, there has been a slight decline in those who have gone past 110 years. Kane Tanaka is currently the oldest living person at 118 years.
